Modeling the distribution of invasive species in small islands under future climates

ABSTRACT: The project described in the article aims to develop a robust data preparation and modeling pipeline to predict the habitat suitability of invasive species in the Azores Archipelago under current and future climate scenarios. Initial findings suggest that ensemble modeling is a useful tool for reducing uncertainty, and also the prospect for a more automated predictor selection. We performed test cases for two species: Gunnera tinctoria (Molina) Mirb. and Paspalum vaginatum (Sw.) P.Fourn. In this summary, we will present our results for Paspalum vaginatum.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Bird collisions in a railway crossing a wetland of international importance (Sado estuary, Portugal)

L. Borda-de-Água et al. (eds.), Railway Ecology, chapter 7, p. 103-115Many studies have evaluated bird mortality in relation to roads and other human structures, but little is known about the potential impacts of railways. In particular, it is uncertain whether railways are an important mortality source when crossing wetlands heavily used by aquatic birds. Here we analyze bird collisions in a railway that crosses the Nature Reserve of the Sado Estuary (Portugal) over an annual cycle, documenting bird mortality and the flight behaviour of aquatic birds in relation to a bowstring bridge. During monthly surveys conducted on 16.3 km of railway, we found 5.8 dead birds/km/10 survey days in the section crossing wetland habitats (6.3 km), while <0.5 dead birds/km/10 survey days were found in two sections crossing only forested habitats. Most birds recorded were small songbirds (Passeriformes), while there was only a small number of aquatic birds (common moorhen, mallard, flamingo, great cormorant, gulls) and other non-passerines associated with wetlands (white stork). During nearly 400 h of observations, we recorded 27,000 movements of aquatic birds across the Sado bridge, particularly in autumn and winter. However, only <1% of movements were within the area of collision risk with trains, while about 91% were above the collision risk area, and 8% were below the bridge. Overall, our case study suggests that bird collisions may be far more numerous in railways crossing wetland habitats than elsewhere, although the risk to aquatic birds may be relatively low. Information from additional study systems would be required to evaluate whether our conclusions apply to other wetlands and railway linesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Multifractal Spatial Patterns and Diversity in an Ecological Succession

We analyzed the relationship between biodiversity and spatial biomass heterogeneity along an ecological succession developed in the laboratory. Periphyton (attached microalgae) biomass spatial patterns at several successional stages were obtained using digital image analysis and at the same time we estimated the species composition and abundance. We show that the spatial pattern was self-similar and as the community developed in an homogeneous environment the pattern is self-organized. To characterize it we estimated the multifractal spectrum of generalized dimensions Dq. Using Dq we analyze the existence of cycles of heterogeneity during succession and the use of the information dimension D1 as an index of successional stage. We did not find cycles but the values of D1 showed an increasing trend as the succession developed and the biomass was higher. D1 was also negatively correlated with Shannon's diversity. Several studies have found this relationship in different ecosystems but here we prove that the community self-organizes and generates its own spatial heterogeneity influencing diversity. If this is confirmed with more experimental and theoretical evidence D1 could be used as an index, easily calculated from remote sensing data, to detect high or low diversity areas

Changes in grassland management and linear infrastructures associated to the decline of an endangered bird population

European grassland birds are experiencing major population declines, mainly due to changes in farmland management. We analyzed the role of habitat availability, grazing management and linear infrastructures (roads and power lines) in explaining spatial and temporal variation in the population density of little bustards (Tetrax tetrax) in Portugal, during a decade in which the species population size halved. We used data from 51 areas (totaling ca. 1,50,000 ha) that were sampled in two different periods (2003–2006 and 2016). In 2003–2006, when the species occurred at high densities, habitat availability was the only factor affecting spatial variation in bustard density. In the 2016 survey, variation in density was explained by habitat availability and livestock management, with reduced bird numbers in areas with higher proportions of cattle. Population declines across the study period were steeper in areas that initially held higher densities of bustards and in areas with a higher proportion of cattle in the total stocking rate. Areas with higher densities of power lines also registered greater density declines, probably due to avoidance behavior and to increased mortality. Overall, our results show little bustards are currently lacking high quality grassland habitat, whose persistence depends on extensive grazing regimes and low linear infrastructure densitiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Factors affecting survival in Mediterranean populations of the Eurasian eagle owl

The survival rate is a key parameter for population management and the monitoring of populations. Thus, an analysis of survival rate variations and the factors influencing the same is essential for understanding population dynamics. Here, we study the factors determining the survival and the causes of mortality of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in two Spanish Mediterranean populations (Murcia and Seville) where the species has a high population density and breeding success; yet its survival rates and the factors that affect them are unknown. Between 2003 and 2010, 63 breeding owls were captured and radio-tracked. Three monthly (quarterly) survival rates were estimated using known-fate models in the program MARK. The mean overall annual survival rate was 0.776 (95 % CI: 0.677, 0.875). We observed survival differences between sexes, and between the breeding and non-breeding periods, although no overwhelming support was found for any particular model. We concluded that (i) females have a lower survival rate than males, probably due to their larger home ranges, which increase the risk of mortality; (ii) the survival rates of both sexes were lower during the non-breeding period; and (iii) the causes of mortality differed significantly between the two populations, gunshot being the main cause in Seville and electrocution in Murcia.Peer Reviewe

Dispersal ability determines the scaling properties of species abundance distributions: A case study using arthropods from the Azores

Species abundance distributions (SAD) are central to the description of diversity and have played a major role in the development of theories of biodiversity and biogeography. However, most work on species abundance distributions has focused on one single spatial scale. Here we used data on arthropods to test predictions obtained with computer simulations on whether dispersal ability influences the rate of change of SADs as a function of sample size. To characterize the change of the shape of the SADs we use the moments of the distributions: the skewness and the raw moments. In agreement with computer simulations, low dispersal ability species generate a hump for intermediate abundance classes earlier than the distributions of high dispersal ability species. Importantly, when plotted as function of sample size, the raw moments of the SADs of arthropods have a power law pattern similar to that observed for the SAD of tropical tree species, thus we conjecture that this might be a general pattern in ecology. The existence of this pattern allows us to extrapolate the moments and thus reconstruct the SAD for larger sample sizes using a procedure borrowed from the field of image analysis based on scaled discrete Tchebichef moments and polynomials. © 2017 The Author(s)

Abundance distribution of common and rare plant species of Brazilian savannas along a seasonality gradient Distribuição de abundâncias de espécies de plantas comuns e raras de savanas brasileiras ao longo de um gradiente de estacionalidade

We examined the species abundance distribution (SAD) of plant communities in: (1) a wet grassland, waterlogged throughout most of the year; (2) a seasonal savanna, with an annual dry season; and (3) a hyperseasonal savanna, with alternating drought and waterlogging over the year. We searched for differences in the abundance distributions of all species, as well as of the common and rare species. We tested whether the SADs fitted the lognormal, log-series, power fraction, and random assortment models. We found that environmental constraints may reduce the evenness of plant communities and change the SADs in savannas. We observed a lognormal abundance distribution in the wet grassland and a random abundance distribution in the hyperseasonal cerrado. The SAD of the seasonal savanna did not follow any model. The common species in the three communities were better fitted by the lognormal model. The rare species in the wet grassland and the hyperseasonal cerrado were better fitted by the random assortment model. The SAD of the rare species of the seasonal savanna did not follow any model. Seasonality seems to modify the lognormal distribution of the overall plant community, generating abundance distributions indistinguishable from random. However, differential community structuring between common and rare species may not be affected by seasonality. The different signatures of the abundance distributions of common and rare plants indicate that composite models are better predictors for SADs in savannas.<br>Examinamos as distribuições de abundâncias de espécies (DAEs) de comunidades de plantas em: (1) um campo úmido, alagado durante a maior parte do ano; (2) uma savana estacional, com uma estação seca anual; e (3) uma savana hiper-estacional, com uma estação seca e um alagamento alternantes durante o ano. Procuramos por diferenças na distribuição de abundância de todas as espécies, bem como das espécies comuns e raras. Testamos se as DAEs se ajustaram aos modelos normal-logarítmico, da série-logarítmica, da fração de potência e do agrupamento aleatório. Encontramos que as restrições ambientais podem reduzir a equabilidade das comunidades de plantas e podem mudar as DAEs em savanas. Observamos um modelo normal-logarítmico no campo úmido e um modelo do agrupamento aleatório na savana hiperestacional. A DAE da savana estacional não seguiu nenhum modelo. As espécies comuns das três comunidades se ajustaram melhor ao modelo normal-logarítmico. As espécies raras do campo úmido e da savana hiperestacional se ajustaram ao modelo do agrupamento aleatório. A DAE das espécies raras da savana estacional não seguiu nenhum modelo. A estacionalidade parece modificar o modelo normal-logarítmico da comunidade de plantas em geral, gerando distribuições de abundâncias aleatórias. Contudo, a organização diferencial da comunidade entre espécies comuns e raras pode não ser afetada pela estacionalidade. As diferentes assinaturas das distribuições de abundância das plantas comuns e raras indicaram que os modelos compostos são melhores preditores das DAEs em savanas